Oil Up, Stocks Down
Stocks are down today because oil is over $86 a barrel, a new record. Oil is up that high in part because of fears that northern Iraq might be invaded by Turkey in an effort to put down Kurdish rebels. Turkey is only considering this because of strained relations with the US. Those relations were strained by a US House resolution condemning the Turkish action in Armenia 80 years ago.
Whew! How do things get this complicated? The world has no reserve capacity of anything anymore. It’s not as if a shortfall in oil can be made up by pumping more out of West Texas. Everything is running full-out, so the smallest disturbance has consequences for everyone. At least we seem to have gotten out of hurricane season!
No matter how anyone feels about oil and how we use it, the big issue is capacity. We simply can’t pump it out of the ground fast enough, and that makes us vulnerable to the flapping of a butterfly’s wings somewhere far away. Either we need to find more of it or we have to conserve it, because the situation right now makes everything in our economy jittery over everything anywhere in the world.
October 15, 2007 No Comments
Subprime Bailout Debate
There is a debate going on between those that feel the Federal Government, Mortgage Lenders, Builders and Banks are under an obligation to assist homeowners whose loans are getting ready to and have adjusted and to assist those that are already facing foreclosure. The other side of the debate says that there should be no assistance and let the cards fall where they may, that a government bailout is a free license to go out without caution and the government will save you.
Side One: What are the government leaders saying by bailing out these borrowers? These home owners were given an opportunity; an opportunity that they otherwise would not have had. Subprime loans where designed, in theory anyway, to help those with bad credit get a loan and over the course of the next 2 to 3 years repair their credit and get into a low rate good credit loan. Problem with that is 90% of the people with bad credit have bad credit because they never pay their bills and can not manage their debt. The majority of subprime borrowers did nothing once the loan closed to repair their credit. They already have bad credit let them go to foreclosure. Bailing them out is just giving a green light to go out and mismanage their finances again. Give them tough love do not enable them. Screw ‘em. Let them drown. These borrowers need to learn from their mistakes. [Read more →]
October 11, 2007 No Comments
Good Bye to a Discount Realty Company
Image Courtesy of Indymedia Ireland
The writing is on the wall for discount realty companies……..Foxtons, the fourth largest real estate company in New Jersey (and one of the largest in the NYC Metro area) is closing up shop for good. What happened to them?This company arrived on the scene in 2000 with a big splash, promising rock bottom commissions from their agents. Sellers lined up quickly to get their home sold on the cheap. Everything looked great - until the downturn, when it went south in a hurry. Now they are looking for someone to take over the 4,400 listings left in the dust.
The reason Foxtons came and went so quickly is that the lowest possible commission is a promise that is full of problems. Low prices always mean that you have to make it up on volume, which is to say the pressure to “churn
and burn” felt by Realtors is even stronger. There isn’t as much incentive to get the best possible price for the client, but there’s a lot of incentive to move houses quickly. The seller is the loser, and it’s all because they were too cheap to realize that the investment in a house has to be matched by a small investment in the best Realtor possible. Now whose going to take and market 4,400 listings in this market at a 2% commission?
What did Foxtons in is the simple fact that we are in a market where you can’t make it up in volume. A few bad months were bound to break them, and now they are gone. Clearly, being the rock bottom on commissions didn’t make for a good business model. Sellers need to understand that they aren’t in their own best interest, either. You usually do get what you pay for.
October 10, 2007 1 Comment
Friday’s Employment Report and the Effect on Mortgage Rates
Stock investors are singing The Happy Song as the closely watched September employment report came in higher than expected, and the market was very surprised by a revision to the August -4,000 job loss report to a net gain of 89,000 jobs. These numbers had the S&P 500 closing at new highs and other index’s such as the NASDAQ and Dow Jones hitting new highs intra day before profit taking.The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 110,000 jobs and experienced an unemployment rate of 4.7 percent during the month of September, higher than the 100,000 expected. This news sent bond and mortgage backed security yields quite higher, so those seeking to lock a mortgage rate over the next day or so will be paying higher prices.The latest jobs report again, proves that the off the cuff Mozilo recession talk was baseless and unfounded. Leaves you wondering why a CEO the largest mortgage company in the US would make such a statement without qualification. The in-line reading and revision to last month’s number however, have analysts reevaluating whether there is the possibility the Federal Reserve will lower rates again when it meets October 30th - 31st and whether the lowering last month was prudent.The major news next week will be the release of the FOMC minutes on Tuesday and Retail Sales on Friday so we will see if these numbers can bring down mortgage rates or if we are in for higher mortgage rates going into winter. It looks like to me, we could have higher mortgage rates for the next month, maybe even higher rates for the quarter as technical indicators seem to be breaking down but longer term 6 months to a year indicators still look in tact for lower rates. But again, any negative news on any given day can change the direction dramatically so stay tuned.The bond markets will be closed on Monday, October 8, but the stock markets are business as usual.
October 5, 2007 No Comments
NetBank; The First Bank Casulty of the Lending Crisis
While nearly 150 mortgage companies have shut down in the last 10 months because of soaring delinquencies and defaults, NetBank, seems to be the first FDIC insured bank casualty of the current credit crisis. In an futile attempt to avoid a shutdown, back in May 2007, NetBank shed parts of it lending lending business to Ever Bank and shutdown their third-party mortgage origination business. Taken over by Federal regulators, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has been appointed as a receiver for the Alpharetta, Ga.-based NetBank and oversee the banks $2.5 Billion in assets. Online rival ING (NYSE:ING) will be taking over most of NetBanks operations.
This is important in the sense that NetBank is the first FDIC insured bank to cease lending operations and actually close altogether. Some mortgage banks have been claiming that because they are a bank and have deposits that they are not as susceptible to the Subprime mortgage defaults and bankruptcy because they have these deposits. NetBank proves that is not the case. Its been reported that the NetBank closure is the largest Savings and Loan closure since the end of the Savings and Loan Crisis of the late 1980’s, early 1990’s.
In other related news, just this morning Citigroup (NYSE: C) is reporting a 60 percent drop in earnings as it takes a $3 Billion write downs in under performing mortgage securities. Citigroup also moved out its earnings call 4 days from October 15th to October 19th. Watch this as this news could move Citigroup to a new 52 week low. More news to come on this.
October 1, 2007 No Comments
Fed Rate Cut And What it Means Does Not Mean to Mortgage Rates
Well it finally happened, the federal reserve lowered interest rates. Its been my belief all year that the Federal Reserve would lower rates in the fall. Now that it has happened its important for consumers to understand what this Fed Rate Cut means to you and your mortgage.
First, for those that have a 30 year fixed rate mortgage it basically means nothing. The lower Fed Funds Rate DOES NOT mean that the 30 year fixed rate mortgage will go down. Actually, the 30 year can go higher as this chart illustrates. By December 2001, following 4.25% in cuts throughout the year, the 30 year mortgage was actually up to 7.07%.
Additionally, with the September 18th Fed cut the average 30 year fixed rate mortgage responded by increasing 5 basis points last week after the announcement. The chart above shows from the year 2001 to mid 20007, the 30 year fixed rate stayed relatively flat and has been predominately trading in a range of 5.875% to 6.25% since the spring of 2002.
But those that have short term adjustable rates, I myself having a monthly adjustable, may very well reap the rewards over the coming months and years if this rate reduction continues. You will notice by the two charts below, that the LIBOR rates, 1YR CMT and 11th District COFI have dropped nearly in tandem with the Federal Funds rate reduction. The LIBOR dropped from 7% in 2001 down to 1% not long after.
Fed Funds Rate since 1990:
Chart of LIBOR, CMT and COFI Indices since 1990:
The coming Fed rate reduction is why I have been a big fan of short term adjustable loans for the whole year. Short term adjustable rates are tremendous mortgage planning tools in a declining interest rate environment. Where people may tend to get into trouble, they get these loans in a increasing rate environment which makes no sense. Why would anyone get a short term adjustable in a increasing rate environment? Does not make sense to me.
September 21, 2007 No Comments
FHA Secure Initiative to Assist Homeowners with ARM’s
President Bush announced a new Federal Housing Administration (FHA) initiative called FHA Secure to assist approximately 240,000 homeowners in refinancing out of adjustable rate mortgages and keep their homes. FHA Secure is a temporary program and all loan applications must be signed no later than December 31, 2008. With the new FHA Secure program homeowners with strong credit histories and have made all payments on time until their loan reset but are now in default will be eligible for refinancing.
“Many hard-working American families who were able to make their mortgage payments under the initial teaser terms of the exotic loan are now struggling to make ends meet because their rates have doubled or tripled,” said HUD Secretary Alphonso Jackson. “FHA Secure will bring stability to the housing market and give eligible families who were in good financial standing before their loans reset a chance to keep their homes.”
To qualify for FHASecure, eligible homeowners must meet the following five criteria:
- A history of on-time mortgage payments before the borrower’s teaser rates expired and loans reset;
- Interest rates must have or will reset between June 2005 and December 2009;
- Three percent cash or equity in the home;
- A sustained history of employment; and
- Sufficient income to make the mortgage payment.
September 8, 2007 No Comments
Consumer Confidence Numbers
Consumer confidence came out this morning. The figure at 105, down from 111.9 in July but up from August 2006. Of course the doom and gloom headlines to quote “Consumer Confidence Falls To Lowest Level in a Year”, I mean come on, expectations were for 104.5 so how come the headline does not say “consumer confidence comes in much better than expected.” Listen to the media as an investor and you will be sure to go broke. That I can GUARANTEE you!
What I can tell you is,,,,,,,, 105 is a far cry from a recession (so far), considering the consumer is 1/3 of GDP, wages are another component and wages are growing at 4% and corporate profits are expected to be in the low double digits so I think the chances of a recession are slim, unless the consumer confidence number falls another 35 points. What this does show is the resiliency of the American consumer in wake of the so called “subprime crisis” or mortgage meltdown or any other name the media has created. Gas prices are still high although a lot lower than the highs, food costs increasing and mortgage rates have ticked up a bit. So IMO, I think the number is strong considering the environment.
The biggest worry for the number is that it was not worse and may be a reason for the stock sell off. Obviously over the next month or so this number could be dramatically lower and with back to school coming we will see if the retail sales numbers are any indication. But as always the media plays a big role in consumer sentiment so we will see how they spin the recession talk and what effect this has on the number going into the coming months.
The 10 year note is trading off its highs up .25bps and less effected is the 6% mortgage backed securities trading up .6bps and seems to be hitting a ceiling of resistance at 100.16. Bond prices have been on a tear since the end of July and rates have came down nicely but may be running out of steam.
At 2pm ET today the Fed will release the Minutes from the August 7th meeting. It will be interesting to get the Fed’s views on the credit crunch, since it was just beginning to unfold at the time they met. The Fed Fund Futures are currently showing a 72% probability of a .25% cut at the September 18th meeting, with some predicting a chance of a .50% rate cut.
August 28, 2007 No Comments
Changes Coming with Fannie Mae Approvals
Now that the market is changing its important to know what needs to be done in todays environment to get the best rates for home loans going forward. Its absolutely imperative that those needing a home loan start at least 90 days prior checking their credit and improving their scores.
For Fannie Mae loans there are basically 3 types of approvals. The first and the best is Approve / Eligible. The others in graded order are EA 1, EA 2 and EA 3. [Read more →]
August 27, 2007 3 Comments
Recession? Wadda Ya Talkin About?
Well Countrywide CEO, Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo, was on CNBC today and uttered the dreaded R word. Mr. Mozilo seems to think that the current housing market will throw the US economy into a recession. I guess anything is possible, though highly unlikely. Funny thing is you never know you are in a recession until you are out of one. “Recession” by definition, is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. Yes, the housing is bad, yes many jobs will be lost within construction, real estate and mortgage divisions. Seems I heard around 40,000 jobs have been lost so far but really, a recession? When I hear this “R Word” I always want to ask them what a recession really means. Its so funny to hear these people that catch on to these “buzzwords” and talk like they know what they are talking about. I would have loved to say “well Mr. Countrywide CEO, tell me sir, how exactly would you define a recession?”
The only real losers in the game where and will be those that came to the party a little too late. [Read more →]
August 24, 2007 1 Comment
Fed Discount Cut; What does it mean for you?
Over the last few weeks there has been a lot of action from the Federal Reserve. First the Federal Reserve implemented two cash infusions into the market and very unexpectedly cut the Fed Discount Rate. Its important to understand what led up to this and I will put into perspective what all this means. [Read more →]
August 18, 2007 No Comments
Credit Crisis Cripples Markets
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“Every crisis carries two elements, danger and opportunity. No matter the difficulty of the circumstances, no matter how dangerous the situation…. At the heart of each crisis lies a tremendous opportunity. Great Blessings lie ahead for the one who knows the secret of finding the opportunity within each crisis.” Haiku Designs |
There are currently dramatic and sweeping changes occurring within the mortgage industry. If you or any one you know needing a mortgage within the coming months, you need to read this!
Just last week there were two high profile lenders that shut their doors. One being the Wells Fargo subprime unit and more importantly American Home Mortgage and its wholesale counterpart, American Brokers Conduit. American Home Mortgage was no small potato. American Home Mortgage was the 10th largest lender in the U.S. and last year closed over $58 BILLION in loans. Its been reported, this shutdown left billions in UNFUNDED loans. Imagine a day, a week or an hour before closing and you get the call from a mortgage loan officer that the loan is not closing. [Read more →]
August 8, 2007 No Comments
2 More Mortgage Lenders Out of Business
This week has been a busy week on the mortgage front with 2 high profile lenders closing its doors. Wells Fargo shut down its subprime unit and American Home Mortgage, AHM, which is to close all corporate doors today. I think the American Home shutdown is an important point because American Home and its affiliate American Brokers Conduit or ABC was not a “Subprime” lender, matter of fact, the amazing part is American Home was the 10th largest in the country, originating nearly $60 BILLION in mortgage loans. This shows how far from over this cycle is and how much we are facing a liquidity crisis across all mortgage lenders, prime and subprime. [Read more →]
August 3, 2007 No Comments
Violation of The Privacy Act; Trigger Leads
Applying for a mortgage? Be prepared for your phone to ring off the hook with unscrupulous lenders calling offering their services. How did they get the information when you did not give it to them? From the credit bureaus. Equifax, Transunion and Experian all sell your personal information to lenders and lead providers. [Read more →]
June 25, 2007 No Comments
Ken Harney; Missing The Point
I am a regular reader of Ken Harney’s articles in the Washington Post. Sundays article “Buyers often clueless on their loans” just caught my eye and I continued to read through. At the end I just thought how off base the article was.
Come on Ken, give us credit. First off don’t you think ADJUSTABLE RATE is about a clear disclosure as you can get. Remember these people sit on front of a closing attorney, in most cases. Which leads me to make another point. [Read more →]
June 24, 2007 No Comments
